Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Podhale Nowy Targ vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
6/1/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Podhale Nowy Targ43%
×Draw25%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.56
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.31

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 19% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 89 away

creates per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.83
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.53

allows per match

Podhale Nowy Targ
1.08
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.29

finishing

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par
Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podhale Nowy Targ ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Podhale Nowy Targ or draw
68%
Podhale Nowy Targ or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
75%
Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
57%

Winning margin

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+
22%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals
79%
Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals
46%
Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals
21%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
73%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
38%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)
57%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podhale Nowy Targ at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.83 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more
43%
level
25%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
32%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Podhale Nowy Targ 0–0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Podhale Nowy Targ and Siarka Tarnobrzeg drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Nowy Targ.