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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lewart — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
FT
1 – 0
Lewart
Lewart
3/6/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg62%
×Draw21%
Lewart17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.07
Lewart
0.99

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 109% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 37 away

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.25
Lewart
0.95

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.03
Lewart
1.89

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par
Lewart+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Lewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw
83%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Lewart
79%
Draw or Lewart
38%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
38%
Lewart wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
87%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
61%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
34%
Lewart 1+ goals
63%
Lewart 2+ goals
26%
Lewart 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
78%
Lewart (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.03 · 87 matches

Lewart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 2.25 + Lewart defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.07

Lewart attack 0.95 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
62%
level
21%
Lewart scores more
17%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1–0 Lewart

Siarka Tarnobrzeg beat Lewart 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR Wisła in Tarnobrzeg.