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Lewart vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
3/1/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lewart29%
×Draw25%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
1.21
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.61

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 89 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.53

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.29

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
53%
Lewart or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
75%
Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
71%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
12%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
70%
Lewart 2+ goals
34%
Lewart 3+ goals
12%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
80%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
48%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
38%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lewart scores more
29%
level
25%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
47%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Lewart 1–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Lewart and Siarka Tarnobrzeg drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.