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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Karpaty Krosno — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
8/23/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg68%
×Draw18%
Karpaty Krosno14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.36
Karpaty Krosno
0.98

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 141% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 17 away

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.25
Karpaty Krosno
0.94

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.03
Karpaty Krosno
2.47

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par
Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Karpaty Krosno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw
86%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Karpaty Krosno
82%
Draw or Karpaty Krosno
32%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
45%
Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
90%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
68%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
41%
Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
62%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
26%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
83%
Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.03 · 87 matches

Karpaty Krosno away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 2.25 + Karpaty Krosno defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.36

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.94 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
68%
level
18%
Karpaty Krosno scores more
14%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 7–0 Karpaty Krosno

Siarka Tarnobrzeg beat Karpaty Krosno 7-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR Wisła in Tarnobrzeg.