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Karpaty Krosno vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Karpaty Krosno
Karpaty Krosno
FT
0 – 0
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
3/16/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Karpaty Krosno24%
×Draw26%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karpaty Krosno
0.94
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.50

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 60% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 89 away

creates per match

Karpaty Krosno
0.59
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.53

allows per match

Karpaty Krosno
1.47
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.29

finishing

Karpaty Krosno+0.00on par
Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty Krosno ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Karpaty Krosno or draw
50%
Karpaty Krosno or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
74%
Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
76%

Winning margin

Karpaty Krosno wins by 2+
8%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Karpaty Krosno 1+ goals
61%
Karpaty Krosno 2+ goals
24%
Karpaty Krosno 3+ goals
7%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
78%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
44%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Karpaty Krosno (draw refunded)
32%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty Krosno at home — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty Krosno attack 0.59 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.94

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Karpaty Krosno defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Karpaty Krosno scores more
24%
level
26%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
50%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Karpaty Krosno 0–0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Karpaty Krosno and Siarka Tarnobrzeg drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Krosno.