Siarka Tarnobrzeg 6–1 Jutrzenka Giebułtów

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

FT

6 – 1

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

11/7/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg69%

×Draw18%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Siarka TarnobrzegExpected goals in this matchJutrzenka Giebułtów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.97

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

2.42

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

0.97

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 149% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 20 away

2.25

creates per match

0.90

1.03

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

2.25

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

0.90

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.03

Jutrzenka Giebułtów

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Jutrzenka Giebułtów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw

87%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Jutrzenka Giebułtów

82%

Draw or Jutrzenka Giebułtów

31%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

46%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

91%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

69%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

43%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals

62%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals

25%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

84%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.03 · 87 matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 2.25 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.42

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 0.90 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

69%

level

18%

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more

13%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff