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Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
Jutrzenka Giebułtów
FT
0 – 1
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
6/2/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 39Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jutrzenka Giebułtów25%
×Draw21%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.40
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.14

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 53% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 89 away

creates per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
1.50
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.53

allows per match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów
2.75
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.29

finishing

Jutrzenka Giebułtów+0.00on par
Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jutrzenka Giebułtów ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Jutrzenka Giebułtów or draw
46%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
79%
Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
75%

Winning margin

Jutrzenka Giebułtów wins by 2+
11%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1+ goals
75%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 2+ goals
41%
Jutrzenka Giebułtów 3+ goals
17%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
88%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
63%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Jutrzenka Giebułtów (draw refunded)
32%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jutrzenka Giebułtów at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 20 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jutrzenka Giebułtów attack 1.50 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Jutrzenka Giebułtów defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jutrzenka Giebułtów scores more
25%
level
21%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
54%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jutrzenka Giebułtów vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Siarka Tarnobrzeg beat Jutrzenka Giebułtów 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka in Krakow.