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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Garbarnia Kraków — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
9/2/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg59%
×Draw21%
Garbarnia Kraków21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.09
Garbarnia Kraków
1.16

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 80% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 17 away

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.25
Garbarnia Kraków
1.29

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.03
Garbarnia Kraków
1.94

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw
79%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Garbarnia Kraków
79%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
41%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
36%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
88%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
62%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
34%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
69%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
32%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
74%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.03 · 87 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 2.25 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.09

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.29 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
59%
level
21%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
21%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Garbarnia Kraków

Siarka Tarnobrzeg and Garbarnia Kraków drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR Wisła in Tarnobrzeg.