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Garbarnia Kraków vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
1 – 1
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
3/30/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków38%
×Draw24%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
1.50
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 89 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.71
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.53

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.47
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.29

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
62%
Garbarnia Kraków or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
76%
Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
62%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
18%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
78%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
44%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
19%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
78%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
44%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
50%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.71 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
38%
level
24%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
38%

Garbarnia Kraków at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garbarnia Kraków vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Garbarnia Kraków and Siarka Tarnobrzeg drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.