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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Łagów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Łagów
Łagów
6/4/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg48%
×Draw24%
Łagów28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.64
Łagów
1.20

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 37% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 45 away

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.25
Łagów
1.36

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.03
Łagów
1.02

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par
Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Łagów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw
72%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Łagów
76%
Draw or Łagów
52%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
25%
Łagów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
81%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
49%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
23%
Łagów 1+ goals
70%
Łagów 2+ goals
34%
Łagów 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
63%
Łagów (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.03 · 87 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 2.25 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.64

Łagów attack 1.36 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
48%
level
24%
Łagów scores more
28%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2–0 Łagów

Siarka Tarnobrzeg beat Łagów 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR Wisła in Tarnobrzeg.