Łagów 1–1 Siarka Tarnobrzeg: Result & Stats

Łagów

FT

1 – 1

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

10/31/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion w Łagówie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Łagów41%

×Draw25%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŁagówExpected goals in this matchSiarka Tarnobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.41

Łagów

1.54

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 89 away

1.78

creates per match

1.53

1.28

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Łagów

1.78

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.53

allows per match

Łagów

1.28

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Łagów+0.00on par

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Łagów ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Łagów or draw

65%

Łagów or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

75%

Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

59%

Winning margin

Łagów wins by 2+

20%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Łagów 1+ goals

79%

Łagów 2+ goals

45%

Łagów 3+ goals

20%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

76%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

41%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Łagów (draw refunded)

54%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Łagów at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Łagów attack 1.78 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Łagów defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Łagów scores more

41%

level

25%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

35%

Łagów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff