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Shumen 2007 vs Septemvri Tervel — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
FT
0 – 1
Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
8/17/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 1Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shumen 200748%
×Draw24%
Septemvri Tervel28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
1.68
Septemvri Tervel
1.23

Shumen 2007 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 104 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Septemvri Tervel
1.60

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Septemvri Tervel
0.88

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Septemvri Tervel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
72%
Shumen 2007 or Septemvri Tervel
76%
Draw or Septemvri Tervel
52%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
25%
Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
81%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
50%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
24%
Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
71%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
35%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
63%
Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Septemvri Tervel away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.88 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.68

Septemvri Tervel attack 1.60 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
48%
level
24%
Septemvri Tervel scores more
28%

Shumen 2007 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shumen 2007 vs Septemvri Tervel

Septemvri Tervel beat Shumen 2007 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov in Shumen.