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Septemvri Tervel vs Shumen 2007 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Septemvri Tervel
Septemvri Tervel
CANC
00:00
Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
3/14/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 19Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Septemvri Tervel56%
×Draw21%
Shumen 200724%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Tervel
2.17
Shumen 2007
1.35

Septemvri Tervel creates 61% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 36 away

creates per match

Septemvri Tervel
2.80
Shumen 2007
2.06

allows per match

Septemvri Tervel
0.64
Shumen 2007
1.53

finishing

Septemvri Tervel+0.00on par
Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Tervel ↓

Shumen 2007 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Septemvri Tervel or draw
76%
Septemvri Tervel or Shumen 2007
79%
Draw or Shumen 2007
44%

Winning margin

Septemvri Tervel wins by 2+
34%
Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Septemvri Tervel 1+ goals
89%
Septemvri Tervel 2+ goals
64%
Septemvri Tervel 3+ goals
36%
Shumen 2007 1+ goals
74%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
39%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Tervel (draw refunded)
70%
Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Tervel at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.64 · 104 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Tervel attack 2.80 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.17

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Septemvri Tervel defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Septemvri Tervel scores more
56%
level
21%
Shumen 2007 scores more
24%

Septemvri Tervel at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Septemvri Tervel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Septemvri Tervel face Shumen 2007 (Third League - Northeast)

Third League - Northeast returns with Septemvri Tervel hosting Shumen 2007. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Septemvri Tervel host Shumen 2007 at Gradski stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.