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Shumen 2007 vs Ludogorets III — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
FT
2 – 1
Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
4/3/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 21Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shumen 200743%
×Draw24%
Ludogorets III33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
1.69
Ludogorets III
1.45

Shumen 2007 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 84 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Ludogorets III
2.05

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Ludogorets III
0.90

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Ludogorets III+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Ludogorets III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
67%
Shumen 2007 or Ludogorets III
76%
Draw or Ludogorets III
57%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
23%
Ludogorets III wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
82%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
50%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
24%
Ludogorets III 1+ goals
77%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
42%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
57%
Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Ludogorets III away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Ludogorets III defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ludogorets III attack 2.05 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
43%
level
24%
Ludogorets III scores more
33%

Shumen 2007 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shumen 2007 2 – 1 Ludogorets III

Shumen 2007 beat Ludogorets III 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov in Shumen.