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Ludogorets III vs Shumen 2007 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Ludogorets III
Ludogorets III
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
11/17/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 13Sporten tsentar Ludogorets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Ludogorets III61%
×Draw19%
Shumen 200720%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludogorets III
2.46
Shumen 2007
1.36

Ludogorets III creates 81% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 36 away

creates per match

Ludogorets III
3.38
Shumen 2007
2.06

allows per match

Ludogorets III
0.67
Shumen 2007
1.53

finishing

Ludogorets III+0.00on par
Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludogorets III ↓

Shumen 2007 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Ludogorets III or draw
80%
Ludogorets III or Shumen 2007
81%
Draw or Shumen 2007
39%

Winning margin

Ludogorets III wins by 2+
40%
Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ludogorets III 1+ goals
91%
Ludogorets III 2+ goals
70%
Ludogorets III 3+ goals
44%
Shumen 2007 1+ goals
74%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
39%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Ludogorets III (draw refunded)
75%
Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludogorets III at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.67 · 84 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludogorets III attack 3.38 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.46

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Ludogorets III defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ludogorets III scores more
61%
level
19%
Shumen 2007 scores more
20%

Ludogorets III at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ludogorets III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ludogorets III 1 – 3 Shumen 2007

Shumen 2007 beat Ludogorets III 3-1 in Third League - Northeast on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sporten tsentar Ludogorets in Razgrad.