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Shumen 2007 vs Fratria II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fratria II
Fratria II
11/24/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 14Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shumen 200775%
×Draw15%
Fratria II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
2.58
Fratria II
0.82

Shumen 2007 creates 215% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Fratria II
0.80

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Fratria II
2.70

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Fratria II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Fratria II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
90%
Shumen 2007 or Fratria II
85%
Draw or Fratria II
25%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
53%
Fratria II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
92%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
72%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
47%
Fratria II 1+ goals
56%
Fratria II 2+ goals
20%
Fratria II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
88%
Fratria II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Fratria II away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Fratria II defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.58

Fratria II attack 0.80 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
75%
level
15%
Fratria II scores more
10%

Shumen 2007 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shumen 2007 2 – 0 Fratria II

Shumen 2007 beat Fratria II 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov in Shumen.