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Fratria II vs Shumen 2007 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Fratria II
Fratria II
FT
1 – 8
Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
5/25/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 29Stadion Staro Oryahovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fratria II24%
×Draw20%
Shumen 200756%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fratria II
1.43
Shumen 2007
2.28

Shumen 2007 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 36 away

creates per match

Fratria II
1.33
Shumen 2007
2.06

allows per match

Fratria II
2.50
Shumen 2007
1.53

finishing

Fratria II+0.00on par
Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria II ↓

Shumen 2007 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Fratria II or draw
44%
Fratria II or Shumen 2007
80%
Draw or Shumen 2007
76%

Winning margin

Fratria II wins by 2+
10%
Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Fratria II 1+ goals
76%
Fratria II 2+ goals
42%
Fratria II 3+ goals
17%
Shumen 2007 1+ goals
90%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
66%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Fratria II (draw refunded)
30%
Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.50 · 30 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria II attack 1.33 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Fratria II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fratria II scores more
24%
level
20%
Shumen 2007 scores more
56%

Shumen 2007 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fratria II vs Shumen 2007

Shumen 2007 beat Fratria II 8-1 in Third League - Northeast on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Staro Oryahovo in Staro Oryahovo.