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Shumen 2007 vs Dobrudzha — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
FT
0 – 4
Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
11/9/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 12Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shumen 200731%
×Draw21%
Dobrudzha48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
1.61
Dobrudzha
2.05

Dobrudzha creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 8 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Dobrudzha
3.25

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Dobrudzha
0.75

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Dobrudzha+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Dobrudzha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
52%
Shumen 2007 or Dobrudzha
79%
Draw or Dobrudzha
69%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
15%
Dobrudzha wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
80%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
48%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
22%
Dobrudzha 1+ goals
87%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
61%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
39%
Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Dobrudzha away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Dobrudzha defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dobrudzha attack 3.25 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
31%
level
21%
Dobrudzha scores more
48%

Dobrudzha at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shumen 2007 vs Dobrudzha

Dobrudzha beat Shumen 2007 4-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov in Shumen.