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Dobrudzha vs Shumen 2007 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dobrudzha
Dobrudzha
CANC
13:00
Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
4/26/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 25Stadion Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dobrudzha68%
×Draw17%
Shumen 200715%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dobrudzha
2.55
Shumen 2007
1.10

Dobrudzha creates 132% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 36 away

creates per match

Dobrudzha
3.57
Shumen 2007
2.06

allows per match

Dobrudzha
0.14
Shumen 2007
1.53

finishing

Dobrudzha+0.00on par
Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dobrudzha ↓

Shumen 2007 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Dobrudzha or draw
85%
Dobrudzha or Shumen 2007
83%
Draw or Shumen 2007
32%

Winning margin

Dobrudzha wins by 2+
46%
Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dobrudzha 1+ goals
92%
Dobrudzha 2+ goals
72%
Dobrudzha 3+ goals
46%
Shumen 2007 1+ goals
67%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
30%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dobrudzha (draw refunded)
82%
Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dobrudzha at home — creates 3.57, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dobrudzha attack 3.57 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.55

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Dobrudzha defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Dobrudzha scores more
68%
level
17%
Shumen 2007 scores more
15%

Dobrudzha at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Dobrudzha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dobrudzha host Shumen 2007

April 26, 2020: Dobrudzha take on Shumen 2007 in Third League - Northeast. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dobrudzha host Shumen 2007 at Stadion Druzhba.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.