Shumen 2007 0–1 Cherno more II: Result & Stats

Shumen 2007

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cherno more II

10/19/2024

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 10Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shumen 200747%

×Draw23%

Cherno more II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shumen 2007Expected goals in this matchCherno more II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.36

Shumen 2007

1.75

Cherno more II

1.36

Shumen 2007 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 58 away

2.47

creates per match

1.88

0.85

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Shumen 2007

2.47

Cherno more II

1.88

allows per match

Shumen 2007

0.85

Cherno more II

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Cherno more II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Cherno more II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw

70%

Shumen 2007 or Cherno more II

77%

Draw or Cherno more II

53%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+

25%

Cherno more II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals

83%

Shumen 2007 2+ goals

52%

Shumen 2007 3+ goals

25%

Cherno more II 1+ goals

74%

Cherno more II 2+ goals

39%

Cherno more II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)

61%

Cherno more II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Cherno more II away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Cherno more II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.75

Cherno more II attack 1.88 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more

47%

level

23%

Cherno more II scores more

30%

Shumen 2007 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Shumen 2007 0–1 Cherno more II

Cherno more II beat Shumen 2007 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov in Shumen.

Shumen 2007 vs Cherno more II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Third League - Northeast: Shumen 2007 0–1 Cherno more II