Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cherno more II vs Shumen 2007 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Cherno more II
Cherno more II
FT
0 – 3
Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
4/27/2025Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 25Cherno More Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Cherno more II41%
×Draw23%
Shumen 200736%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cherno more II
1.70
Shumen 2007
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 36 away

creates per match

Cherno more II
1.86
Shumen 2007
2.06

allows per match

Cherno more II
1.12
Shumen 2007
1.53

finishing

Cherno more II+0.00on par
Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherno more II ↓

Shumen 2007 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cherno more II or draw
64%
Cherno more II or Shumen 2007
77%
Draw or Shumen 2007
59%

Winning margin

Cherno more II wins by 2+
21%
Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cherno more II 1+ goals
82%
Cherno more II 2+ goals
51%
Cherno more II 3+ goals
24%
Shumen 2007 1+ goals
80%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
47%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Cherno more II (draw refunded)
53%
Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherno more II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherno more II attack 1.86 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Cherno more II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cherno more II scores more
41%
level
23%
Shumen 2007 scores more
36%

Cherno more II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cherno more II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Cherno more II 0–3 Shumen 2007

Shumen 2007 beat Cherno more II 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Cherno More Sports Complex in Varna.