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Shumen 2007 vs Botev Novi Pazar — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
FT
6 – 2
Botev Novi Pazar
Botev Novi Pazar
11/30/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 15Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shumen 200777%
×Draw14%
Botev Novi Pazar9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
2.73
Botev Novi Pazar
0.81

Shumen 2007 creates 237% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 90 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Botev Novi Pazar
0.77

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Botev Novi Pazar
2.98

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Botev Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
91%
Shumen 2007 or Botev Novi Pazar
86%
Draw or Botev Novi Pazar
23%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
56%
Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
93%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
75%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
50%
Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals
56%
Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals
19%
Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
90%
Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Botev Novi Pazar away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.98 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.73

Botev Novi Pazar attack 0.77 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
77%
level
14%
Botev Novi Pazar scores more
9%

Shumen 2007 at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Shumen 2007 6–2 Botev Novi Pazar

Shumen 2007 beat Botev Novi Pazar 6-2 in Third League - Northeast on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov in Shumen.