Botev Novi Pazar 1–2 Shumen 2007: Result & Stats

Botev Novi Pazar

FT

1 – 2

Shumen 2007

4/10/2021

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 22Stadion Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Botev Novi Pazar27%

×Draw23%

Shumen 200750%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Novi PazarExpected goals in this matchShumen 2007

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.86

Botev Novi Pazar

1.30

Shumen 2007

1.86

Shumen 2007 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 36 away

1.07

creates per match

2.06

1.67

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Botev Novi Pazar

1.07

Shumen 2007

2.06

allows per match

Botev Novi Pazar

1.67

Shumen 2007

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Novi Pazar ↓

Shumen 2007 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Botev Novi Pazar or draw

50%

Botev Novi Pazar or Shumen 2007

77%

Draw or Shumen 2007

73%

Winning margin

Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+

11%

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals

73%

Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals

37%

Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals

14%

Shumen 2007 1+ goals

84%

Shumen 2007 2+ goals

55%

Shumen 2007 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

35%

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 90 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Botev Novi Pazar scores more

27%

level

23%

Shumen 2007 scores more

50%

Shumen 2007 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff