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Shumen 2007 vs Benkovski Byala — Third League - Northeast 2018

Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
FT
2 – 0
Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
9/8/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 1Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Shumen 200785%
×Draw10%
Benkovski Byala4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shumen 2007
3.04
Benkovski Byala
0.57

Shumen 2007 creates 433% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 20 away

creates per match

Shumen 2007
2.47
Benkovski Byala
0.30

allows per match

Shumen 2007
0.85
Benkovski Byala
3.60

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par
Benkovski Byala+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Benkovski Byala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw
96%
Shumen 2007 or Benkovski Byala
90%
Draw or Benkovski Byala
15%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
67%
Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals
95%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
80%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
57%
Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
43%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
11%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
95%
Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Benkovski Byala away — creates 0.30, concedes 3.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Benkovski Byala defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 3.04

Benkovski Byala attack 0.30 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more
85%
level
10%
Benkovski Byala scores more
4%

Shumen 2007 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shumen 2007 2 – 0 Benkovski Byala

Shumen 2007 beat Benkovski Byala 2-0 in Third League - Northeast on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov in Shumen.