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Benkovski Byala vs Shumen 2007 — Third League - Northeast 2018

Benkovski Byala
Benkovski Byala
CANC
13:00
Shumen 2007
Shumen 2007
10/4/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 8Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Benkovski Byala31%
×Draw23%
Shumen 200747%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benkovski Byala
1.45
Shumen 2007
1.84

Shumen 2007 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 36 away

creates per match

Benkovski Byala
1.37
Shumen 2007
2.06

allows per match

Benkovski Byala
1.63
Shumen 2007
1.53

finishing

Benkovski Byala+0.00on par
Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benkovski Byala ↓

Shumen 2007 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Benkovski Byala or draw
53%
Benkovski Byala or Shumen 2007
77%
Draw or Shumen 2007
69%

Winning margin

Benkovski Byala wins by 2+
14%
Shumen 2007 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Benkovski Byala 1+ goals
77%
Benkovski Byala 2+ goals
42%
Benkovski Byala 3+ goals
18%
Shumen 2007 1+ goals
84%
Shumen 2007 2+ goals
55%
Shumen 2007 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Benkovski Byala (draw refunded)
40%
Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benkovski Byala at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benkovski Byala attack 1.37 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Benkovski Byala defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Benkovski Byala scores more
31%
level
23%
Shumen 2007 scores more
47%

Shumen 2007 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Benkovski Byala face Shumen 2007 (Third League - Northeast)

Third League - Northeast returns with Benkovski Byala hosting Shumen 2007. Match starts October 4, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Benkovski Byala host Shumen 2007 at Stadion Georgi Benkovski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.