Shumen 2007 3–0 Aksakovo: Result & Stats

Shumen 2007

FT

3 – 0

Aksakovo

3/15/2025

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 19Stadion Panayot Volov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shumen 200766%

×Draw19%

Aksakovo15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shumen 2007Expected goals in this matchAksakovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.01

Shumen 2007

2.29

Aksakovo

1.01

Shumen 2007 creates 127% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 30 away

2.47

creates per match

1.17

0.85

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Shumen 2007

2.47

Aksakovo

1.17

allows per match

Shumen 2007

0.85

Aksakovo

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Aksakovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shumen 2007 ↓

Aksakovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Shumen 2007 or draw

85%

Shumen 2007 or Aksakovo

81%

Draw or Aksakovo

34%

Winning margin

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+

43%

Aksakovo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Shumen 2007 1+ goals

90%

Shumen 2007 2+ goals

66%

Shumen 2007 3+ goals

40%

Aksakovo 1+ goals

64%

Aksakovo 2+ goals

27%

Aksakovo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)

81%

Aksakovo (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shumen 2007 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Aksakovo away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shumen 2007 attack 2.47 + Aksakovo defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.29

Aksakovo attack 1.17 + Shumen 2007 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Shumen 2007 scores more

66%

level

19%

Aksakovo scores more

15%

Shumen 2007 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff