Aksakovo 1–1 Shumen 2007: Result & Stats

Aksakovo

FT

1 – 1

Shumen 2007

9/7/2024

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 4Aksakovo stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Aksakovo33%

×Draw22%

Shumen 200745%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AksakovoExpected goals in this matchShumen 2007

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.89

Aksakovo

1.60

Shumen 2007

1.89

Shumen 2007 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 36 away

1.68

creates per match

2.06

1.71

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Aksakovo

1.68

Shumen 2007

2.06

allows per match

Aksakovo

1.71

Shumen 2007

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aksakovo+0.00on par

Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aksakovo ↓

Shumen 2007 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Aksakovo or draw

55%

Aksakovo or Shumen 2007

78%

Draw or Shumen 2007

67%

Winning margin

Aksakovo wins by 2+

16%

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Aksakovo 1+ goals

80%

Aksakovo 2+ goals

47%

Aksakovo 3+ goals

22%

Shumen 2007 1+ goals

85%

Shumen 2007 2+ goals

56%

Shumen 2007 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Aksakovo (draw refunded)

42%

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aksakovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aksakovo attack 1.68 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Aksakovo defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aksakovo scores more

33%

level

22%

Shumen 2007 scores more

45%

Shumen 2007 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shumen 2007 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff