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Shukura vs Saburtalo — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Shukura
Shukura
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Saburtalo
Saburtaloadvanced
10/12/2022David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Quarter-finalsBatumis Dinamos Satsvrtneli Baza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Shukura19%
×Draw26%
Saburtalo55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura
0.77
Saburtalo
1.50

Saburtalo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Shukura
1.40
Saburtalo
2.00

allows per match

Shukura
1.00
Saburtalo
0.14

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par
Saburtalo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Saburtalo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–116%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shukura or draw
45%
Shukura or Saburtalo
74%
Draw or Saburtalo
81%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+
6%
Saburtalo wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals
54%
Shukura 2+ goals
18%
Shukura 3+ goals
4%
Saburtalo 1+ goals
78%
Saburtalo 2+ goals
44%
Saburtalo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)
26%
Saburtalo (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Saburtalo away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 1.40 + Saburtalo defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 0.77

Saburtalo attack 2.00 + Shukura defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Shukura scores more
19%
level
26%
Saburtalo scores more
55%

Saburtalo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Saburtalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shukura vs Saburtalo

Saburtalo beat Shukura 2-0 in David Kipiani Cup on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at Batumis Dinamos Satsvrtneli Baza in Batumi.