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Saburtalo vs Shukura — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Saburtalo
Saburtalo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Shukura
Shukura
3/8/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 3Teknikuri Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Saburtalo62%
×Draw22%
Shukura17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saburtalo
1.93
Shukura
0.89

Saburtalo creates 117% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 36 away

creates per match

Saburtalo
1.67
Shukura
0.86

allows per match

Saburtalo
0.91
Shukura
2.19

finishing

Saburtalo+0.00on par
Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saburtalo ↓

Shukura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Saburtalo or draw
83%
Saburtalo or Shukura
78%
Draw or Shukura
38%

Winning margin

Saburtalo wins by 2+
37%
Shukura wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Saburtalo 1+ goals
85%
Saburtalo 2+ goals
57%
Saburtalo 3+ goals
30%
Shukura 1+ goals
59%
Shukura 2+ goals
22%
Shukura 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Saburtalo (draw refunded)
79%
Shukura (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saburtalo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.91 · 127 matches

Shukura away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saburtalo attack 1.67 + Shukura defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.93

Shukura attack 0.86 + Saburtalo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Saburtalo scores more
62%
level
22%
Shukura scores more
17%

Saburtalo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Saburtalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saburtalo vs Shukura

Saburtalo beat Shukura 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga on March 8, 2023.

The match was played at Teknikuri Tsentri in Rustavi.