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Shukura vs Saburtalo — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Shukura
Shukura
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
11/29/2021Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 52Chele Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Shukura23%
×Draw22%
Saburtalo55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura
1.14
Saburtalo
1.90

Saburtalo creates 67% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 126 away

creates per match

Shukura
0.95
Saburtalo
1.63

allows per match

Shukura
2.16
Saburtalo
1.33

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par
Saburtalo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Saburtalo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shukura or draw
45%
Shukura or Saburtalo
78%
Draw or Saburtalo
77%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+
9%
Saburtalo wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals
68%
Shukura 2+ goals
32%
Shukura 3+ goals
11%
Saburtalo 1+ goals
85%
Saburtalo 2+ goals
56%
Saburtalo 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)
29%
Saburtalo (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 38 matches

Saburtalo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 0.95 + Saburtalo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Saburtalo attack 1.63 + Shukura defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Shukura scores more
23%
level
22%
Saburtalo scores more
55%

Saburtalo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Saburtalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shukura vs Saburtalo

Saburtalo beat Shukura 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga on November 29, 2021.

The match was played at Chele Arena in Kobuleti.