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Shukura vs Dinamo Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Shukura
Shukura
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi
9/2/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 24Ilia Kokaias Sakhelobis Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Shukura20%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Tbilisi58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura
0.99
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.87

Dinamo Tbilisi creates 89% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 127 away

creates per match

Shukura
0.95
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.57

allows per match

Shukura
2.16
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.03

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shukura or draw
42%
Shukura or Dinamo Tbilisi
78%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi
80%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+
7%
Dinamo Tbilisi wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals
63%
Shukura 2+ goals
26%
Shukura 3+ goals
8%
Dinamo Tbilisi 1+ goals
85%
Dinamo Tbilisi 2+ goals
56%
Dinamo Tbilisi 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)
25%
Dinamo Tbilisi (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.16 · 38 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.03 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 0.95 + Dinamo Tbilisi defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Dinamo Tbilisi attack 1.57 + Shukura defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Shukura scores more
20%
level
22%
Dinamo Tbilisi scores more
58%

Dinamo Tbilisi at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shukura vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Dinamo Tbilisi beat Shukura 3-2 in Erovnuli Liga on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Ilia Kokaias Sakhelobis Tsentri in Tbilisi.