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Dinamo Tbilisi vs Shukura — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Tbilisi
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Shukura
Shukura
11/10/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 33Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Dinamo Tbilisi64%
×Draw20%
Shukura15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tbilisi
2.05
Shukura
0.89

Dinamo Tbilisi creates 130% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 36 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tbilisi
1.92
Shukura
0.86

allows per match

Dinamo Tbilisi
0.91
Shukura
2.19

finishing

Dinamo Tbilisi+0.00on par
Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tbilisi ↓

Shukura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Tbilisi or draw
85%
Dinamo Tbilisi or Shukura
80%
Draw or Shukura
36%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tbilisi wins by 2+
40%
Shukura wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Dinamo Tbilisi 1+ goals
87%
Dinamo Tbilisi 2+ goals
61%
Dinamo Tbilisi 3+ goals
33%
Shukura 1+ goals
59%
Shukura 2+ goals
22%
Shukura 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tbilisi (draw refunded)
81%
Shukura (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tbilisi at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.91 · 126 matches

Shukura away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tbilisi attack 1.92 + Shukura defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.05

Shukura attack 0.86 + Dinamo Tbilisi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dinamo Tbilisi scores more
64%
level
20%
Shukura scores more
15%

Dinamo Tbilisi at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Tbilisi vs Shukura

Dinamo Tbilisi beat Shukura 4-2 in Erovnuli Liga on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi.