Shukura 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi: Result & Stats

Shukura

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Tbilisi

S. Ekvtimishvili 54'

4/21/2021

David Kipiani Cup · Round of 32Stadioni Davit Abashidze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Shukura44%

×Draw30%

Dinamo Tbilisi26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShukuraExpected goals in this matchDinamo Tbilisi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.85

Shukura

1.20

Dinamo Tbilisi

0.85

Shukura creates 41% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.40

creates per match

0.71

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Shukura

1.40

Dinamo Tbilisi

0.71

allows per match

Shukura

1.00

Dinamo Tbilisi

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par

Dinamo Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Shukura or draw

74%

Shukura or Dinamo Tbilisi

70%

Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi

56%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+

19%

Dinamo Tbilisi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals

70%

Shukura 2+ goals

34%

Shukura 3+ goals

12%

Dinamo Tbilisi 1+ goals

57%

Dinamo Tbilisi 2+ goals

21%

Dinamo Tbilisi 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)

63%

Dinamo Tbilisi (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 1.40 + Dinamo Tbilisi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Dinamo Tbilisi attack 0.71 + Shukura defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shukura scores more

44%

level

30%

Dinamo Tbilisi scores more

26%

Shukura at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

S. Ekvtimishvili

55'

B. Verulidze← D. Mujiri

55'

G. Chelebadze← C. Tanor

55'

L. Gagnidze← L. Kharabadze

55'

M. Radin← G. Kutsia

72'

Z. Museliani← G. Apkhazava

72'

Carlos Castro← B. Kardava

83'

Jefinho← S. Ekvtimishvili

83'

L. Khmaladze← G. Rekhviashvili

Shukura

Dinamo

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Shashiashvili

55'▲B. Verulidze←▼D. Mujiri

55'▲G. Chelebadze←▼C. Tanor

72'▲Z. Museliani←▼G. Apkhazava

83'▲Jefinho←▼S. Ekvtimishvili

83'▲L. Khmaladze←▼G. Rekhviashvili

Shukura substitutes

VerulidzeChelebadzeMuselianiJefinhoKhmaladzeRokhvadzeSheroziaPartenadzeJintcharadze

Manager: G. Nemsadze

55'▲L. Gagnidze←▼L. Kharabadze

55'▲M. Radin←▼G. Kutsia

72'▲Carlos Castro←▼B. Kardava

Dinamo Tbilisi substitutes

GagnidzeRadinCastroKharshiladzeJangidze