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Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Preview
15:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
12/26/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 21The Croud Meadow
38%
Swindon Town
model favours
36%26%38%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Shrewsbury36%
×Draw26%
Swindon Town38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.29
Swindon Town
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.11
Swindon Town
1.34

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.32
Swindon Town
1.46

finishing

Shrewsbury-0.02on par
Swindon Town-0.01on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
62%
Shrewsbury or Swindon Town
74%
Draw or Swindon Town
64%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
16%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
72%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
37%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
14%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
74%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
38%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
49%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.11 + Swindon Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Swindon Town attack 1.34 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
36%
level
26%
Swindon Town scores more
38%

Swindon Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Shrewsbury raise their game against the top half — 29% wins vs the upper half, only 27% vs the lower
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
Swindon Town
Attack-heavy
44%Possession53%
60%Pass accuracy72%
11.5Shots12.7
0.91xGBiggest gap1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ShrewsburySwindon Town

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
1
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 75%
3–11–21–03–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Shrewsbury
WWDDL
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town — Match Preview

Shrewsbury face Swindon Town on December 26, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Shrewsbury host Swindon Town at The Croud Meadow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.