Shrewsbury 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sheffield Wednesday

M. Pennington 45+1'

1/2/2022

League One · Round 26Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Shrewsbury33%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Wednesday40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.31

Shrewsbury

1.17

Sheffield Wednesday

1.31

Sheffield Wednesday creates 12% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 53 away

1.14

creates per match

1.30

1.32

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Sheffield Wednesday

1.30

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Sheffield Wednesday

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

60%

Shrewsbury or Sheffield Wednesday

73%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

67%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

14%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

69%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

33%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

11%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

73%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

38%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

45%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.30 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

33%

level

27%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

40%

Sheffield Wednesday at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Maroši

Shrewsbury · G

7.7

Match Events

29'

C. Brennan← C. Paterson

37'

Dennis Adeniran

45+1'

R. Pyke← D. Udoh

45+1'

M. Pennington↳ L. Leahy

58'

F. Dele-Bashiru← D. Adeniran

65'

N. Mendez-Laing← M. Johnson

75'

84'

90+2'

90+3'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburySheffield

Overview

34%Possession66%

11Total Shots14

4Corners8

11Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots14

6On Target5

2Off Target2

3Blocked7

9Inside Box5

2Outside Box9

Passing

34%Possession66%

253Total Passes499

157Accurate Passes397

62%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1