Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shrewsbury

M. McGuinness 39'

11/19/2022

League One · Round 19Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday59%

×Draw24%

Shrewsbury17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.79

Sheffield Wednesday

1.71

Shrewsbury

0.79

Sheffield Wednesday creates 116% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 152 away

2.04

creates per match

0.86

0.73

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

2.04

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

0.73

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

83%

Sheffield Wednesday or Shrewsbury

76%

Draw or Shrewsbury

41%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

33%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

82%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

51%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

24%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

55%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

19%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

78%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 2.04 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.71

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

59%

level

24%

Shrewsbury scores more

17%

Sheffield Wednesday at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

M. McGuinness

Sheffield Wednesday · D

8.3

Match Events

39'

M. McGuinness↳ B. Bannan

69'

L. Gregory← A. Mighten

76'

M. Wilks← J. Windass

76'

R. Pyke← J. Shipley

80'

T. Bloxham← R. Street

82'

Rekeil Pyke

83'

L. Palmer← D. Iorfa

83'

W. Vaulks← F. Dele-Bashiru

90+4'

Mallik Wilks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldShrewsbury

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots9

7Corners1

9Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots9

4On Target1

8Off Target4

2Blocked4

12Inside Box4

2Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

464Total Passes370

356Accurate Passes250

77%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1