Shrewsbury 1–1 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Scunthorpe

A. Hammill 84' (OG)

K. Wootton 22'

4/6/2019

League One · Round 41New Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shrewsbury41%

×Draw26%

Scunthorpe34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.27

Shrewsbury

1.42

Scunthorpe

1.27

Shrewsbury creates 12% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 29 away

1.14

creates per match

1.21

1.32

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Scunthorpe

1.21

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Scunthorpe

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

66%

Shrewsbury or Scunthorpe

74%

Draw or Scunthorpe

59%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

19%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

76%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

41%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

17%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

72%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

36%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

55%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Scunthorpe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Scunthorpe attack 1.21 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

41%

level

26%

Scunthorpe scores more

34%

Shrewsbury at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

K. Wootton↳ A. McMahon

44'

H. McGahey← A. McMahon

56'

James Perch

65'

A. Amadi-Holloway← J. Bolton

72'

C. Lewis← T. Pearce

76'

T. Campbell← A. Grant

79'

G. Thomas← J. Hallam

84'

A. HammillOwn goal

Shrewsbury

Scunthorpe

25

Alnwick

4

A

▼

5

14

23

16

▼

Pearce

47

🥅

Hammill

6

Ojo

30

▼

Hallam

17

Novak

29

⚽

1

23

22

6

13

▼

Bolton

2

Williams

42

▼

29

8

7

12

Manager: S. Ricketts

65'▲A. Amadi-Holloway←▼J. Bolton

76'▲T. Campbell←▼A. Grant

Shrewsbury substitutes

20Amadi-Holloway11Campbell4Edwards5Sadler28Laurent30Charles-Cook50Payne

Manager: A. Dawson

44'▲H. McGahey←▼A. McMahon

72'▲C. Lewis←▼T. Pearce

79'▲G. Thomas←▼J. Hallam

Scunthorpe substitutes

26McGahey15Lewis18Thomas10Veen21Burgess24Olomola27Flatt