Scunthorpe 1–0 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shrewsbury

L. Novak 55'

9/22/2018

League One · Round 9Glanford Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Scunthorpe39%

×Draw26%

Shrewsbury35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.29

Scunthorpe

1.38

Shrewsbury

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 152 away

1.38

creates per match

0.86

1.72

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Scunthorpe

1.38

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.72

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

65%

Scunthorpe or Shrewsbury

74%

Draw or Shrewsbury

61%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

18%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

75%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

40%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

16%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

72%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

37%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

53%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 1.38 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Scunthorpe defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

39%

level

26%

Shrewsbury scores more

35%

Scunthorpe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Scunthorpe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

19'

34'

45'

55'

66'

A. Amadi-Holloway← A. Grant

72'

A. Dales← R. Colclough

81'

R. McArdle← L. Novak

88'

S. Humphrys← I. Ugbo

90'

Matthew Lund

90'

A. Gnahoua← A. Gilliead

Scunthorpe

Shrewsbury

1

5

22

6

2

42

▼

29

9

8

7

18

▼

25

14

21

3

20

6

7

11

A

Morris

17

⚽

▼

Novak

49

▼

Colclough

9

▼

Ugbo

Manager: S. McCall

72'▲A. Dales←▼R. Colclough

81'▲R. McArdle←▼L. Novak

88'▲S. Humphrys←▼I. Ugbo

Scunthorpe substitutes

12Dales23McArdle10Humphrys8Horsfield18Thomas27Flatt33Butroid

Manager: J. Askey

66'▲A. Amadi-Holloway←▼A. Grant

90'▲A. Gnahoua←▼A. Gilliead

Shrewsbury substitutes

20Amadi-Holloway11Gnahoua4Kennedy13Bolton15Arnold28Laurent38Barnett