Shrewsbury 0–0 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rotherham

3/1/2022

League One · Round 17Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Shrewsbury34%

×Draw28%

Rotherham38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.23

Shrewsbury

1.15

Rotherham

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 99 away

1.14

creates per match

1.15

1.32

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Rotherham

1.15

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Rotherham

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

62%

Shrewsbury or Rotherham

72%

Draw or Rotherham

66%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

14%

Rotherham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

68%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

32%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

11%

Rotherham 1+ goals

71%

Rotherham 2+ goals

35%

Rotherham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

47%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Rotherham attack 1.15 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

34%

level

28%

Rotherham scores more

38%

Rotherham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

J. Vickers

Rotherham · G

8.3

Match Events

41'

Matthew Pennington

46'

B. Wiles← O. Rathbone

46'

C. Ogbene← W. Harding

78'

J. Mattock← A. MacDonald

90+2'

S. Janneh← D. Udoh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyRotherham

Overview

42%Possession58%

14Total Shots14

6Corners7

13Fouls6

Shots

14Total Shots14

5On Target2

8Off Target9

1Blocked3

8Inside Box11

6Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

255Total Passes354

130Accurate Passes225

51%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0