Shrewsbury 1–2 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rotherham

A. Pierre 66'

M. Smith 90+7'

J. Mattock 60'

12/26/2019

League One · Round 23Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Shrewsbury34%

×Draw28%

Rotherham38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.23

Shrewsbury

1.15

Rotherham

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 99 away

1.14

creates per match

1.15

1.32

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Rotherham

1.15

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Rotherham

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

62%

Shrewsbury or Rotherham

72%

Draw or Rotherham

66%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

14%

Rotherham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

68%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

32%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

11%

Rotherham 1+ goals

71%

Rotherham 2+ goals

35%

Rotherham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

47%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Rotherham attack 1.15 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

34%

level

28%

Rotherham scores more

38%

Rotherham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

D. Barlaser

Rotherham · M

7.9

Match Events

51'

Shaun Whalley

60'

J. Mattock↳ M. Ihiekwe

66'

A. Pierre↳ S. Golbourne

68'

D. Udoh← F. Okenabirhie

72'

Donald Love

79'

R. Giles← D. Edwards

82'

K. Vassell← C. Ogbene

84'

85'

86'

90+6'

90+7'

M. Smith↳ A. Thompson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyRotherham

Overview

49%Possession51%

3Total Shots16

4Corners6

21Fouls14

Shots

3Total Shots16

2On Target5

1Off Target4

0Blocked7

3Inside Box15

0Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

285Total Passes283

142Accurate Passes157

50%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls14

3Yellow Cards0

4Offsides1