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Shrewsbury vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oldham
Oldham
W. Boyle 30'
4/11/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 43The Croud Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Shrewsbury37%
×Draw28%
Oldham35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.18
Oldham
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 43 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
0.96
Oldham
1.09

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.17
Oldham
1.40

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
65%
Shrewsbury or Oldham
72%
Draw or Oldham
63%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
16%
Oldham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
69%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
33%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
12%
Oldham 1+ goals
68%
Oldham 2+ goals
31%
Oldham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
52%
Oldham (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 0.96 + Oldham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.18

Oldham attack 1.09 + Shrewsbury defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
37%
level
28%
Oldham scores more
35%

Shrewsbury at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
W. BoyleShrewsburyShrewsbury · D
8.2

Match Events

30'
W. Boyle↳ T. Perry
46'
J. Garner← K. Payne
47'
Iwan Morgan
57'
D. Simeu← D. Daniels
62'
Joe Garner
63'
F. Jalo← J. Hawkes
77'
Bradley Ihionvien
79'
N. Freeman← W. Gray
80'
G. Lloyd← B. Ihionvien
85'
A. Scully← I. Morgan
87'
Fabio Jaló

Possession

48%Shrewsbury

Shots

8Shrewsbury

Pass accuracy

50%Shrewsbury

Statistics

ShrewsburyOldham
Overview
48%Possession52%
8Total Shots10
0.48Expected Goals (xG)1.68
3Corners5
9Fouls14
Shots
8Total Shots10
2On Target2
4Off Target5
2Blocked3
3Inside Box8
5Outside Box2
Passing
48%Possession52%
317Total Passes345
189Accurate Passes205
60%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides3

League Two: Shrewsbury 1–0 Oldham

Shrewsbury beat Oldham 1-0 in League Two on April 11, 2026.

Goals: W. Boyle (30').

Oldham controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at The Croud Meadow in Shrewsbury.