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Oldham vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Oldham
Oldham
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
J. Garner 90'
T. Pett 51'
T. McDermott 90'
A. Scully 46'
10/25/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 14Boundary Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Oldham49%
×Draw25%
Shrewsbury27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oldham
1.64
Shrewsbury
1.15

Oldham creates 43% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 23 away

creates per match

Oldham
1.45
Shrewsbury
0.87

allows per match

Oldham
1.42
Shrewsbury
1.83

finishing

Oldham+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oldham ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Oldham or draw
73%
Oldham or Shrewsbury
75%
Draw or Shrewsbury
51%

Winning margin

Oldham wins by 2+
26%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oldham 1+ goals
81%
Oldham 2+ goals
49%
Oldham 3+ goals
23%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
68%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
32%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oldham (draw refunded)
65%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oldham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 110 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oldham attack 1.45 + Shrewsbury defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

Shrewsbury attack 0.87 + Oldham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Oldham scores more
49%
level
25%
Shrewsbury scores more
27%

Oldham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oldham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
T. PettOldhamOldham · M
7.9

Match Events

26'
Will Brook
46'
A. Scully
51'
T. Pett
59'
J. Ruffels← T. Perry
64'
M. Fondop-Talum← M. Mellon
69'
J. Hawkes← L. Hannant
77'
K. Drummond← O. Hammond
80'
Luca Hoole
82'
C. Aneke← A. Scully
87'
Joe Garner
87'
Sam Stubbs
90+1'
Tommy McDermott
90'
T. McDermott↳ I. Kabia
90'
J. Garner↳ R. Woods

Possession

60%Oldham

Shots

12Oldham

Pass accuracy

55%Oldham

Statistics

OldhamShrewsbury
Overview
60%Possession40%
12Total Shots9
7Corners2
8Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots9
4On Target3
6Off Target3
2Blocked3
9Inside Box4
3Outside Box5
Passing
60%Possession40%
443Total Passes300
304Accurate Passes171
69%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls17
1Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Oldham vs Shrewsbury

Oldham and Shrewsbury drew 2-2 in League Two on October 25, 2025.

Goals: A. Scully (46'), T. Pett (51'), T. McDermott (90'), J. Garner (90').

Oldham controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Boundary Park in Oldham.