Shrewsbury 3–1 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Morecambe

C. Dunkley 84'

R. Street 44'

L. Leahy 33' (pen)

D. Crowley 45+1'

3/11/2023

League One · Round 36Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Shrewsbury50%

×Draw24%

Morecambe25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.10

Shrewsbury

1.65

Morecambe

1.10

Shrewsbury creates 50% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 46 away

1.14

creates per match

0.89

1.32

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

75%

Shrewsbury or Morecambe

76%

Draw or Morecambe

50%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

27%

Morecambe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

81%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

49%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

23%

Morecambe 1+ goals

67%

Morecambe 2+ goals

30%

Morecambe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

66%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

50%

level

24%

Morecambe scores more

25%

Shrewsbury at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

L. Leahy

Shrewsbury · M

9.2

Match Events

21'

Taylor Moore

33'

L. LeahyPenalty

44'

R. Street↳ M. Pennington

45+1'

D. Crowley↳ R. Delaney

62'

Tom Bayliss

65'

Luke Leahy

74'

O. Niasse← R. Delaney

76'

E. Bennett← T. Bayliss

84'

C. Dunkley↳ L. Leahy

90'

T. Bloxham← R. Street

90'

R. Bowman← R. Pyke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyMorecambe

Overview

48%Possession52%

21Total Shots10

8Corners3

8Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots10

8On Target2

10Off Target6

3Blocked2

15Inside Box3

6Outside Box7

Passing

48%Possession52%

348Total Passes383

241Accurate Passes271

69%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls12

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2