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Morecambe vs Shrewsbury — League One 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
7/30/2022League OneLeague One · Round 1Mazuma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Morecambe42%
×Draw27%
Shrewsbury31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.38
Shrewsbury
1.15

Morecambe creates 20% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 152 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.37
Shrewsbury
0.86

allows per match

Morecambe
1.43
Shrewsbury
1.39

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
69%
Morecambe or Shrewsbury
73%
Draw or Shrewsbury
58%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
20%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
75%
Morecambe 2+ goals
40%
Morecambe 3+ goals
16%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
68%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
32%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
57%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.37 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Morecambe defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Morecambe scores more
42%
level
27%
Shrewsbury scores more
31%

Morecambe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Morecambe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
L. LeahyShrewsburyShrewsbury · M
8.2

Match Events

63'
Ryan Bowman
66'
J. Taylor← L. Gibson
67'
R. Pyke← T. Bayliss
77'
Donald Love
80'
Tom Flanagan
82'
Ryan Delaney
83'
A. O'Brien← J. Shipley

Possession

42%Morecambe

Shots

7Morecambe

Pass accuracy

48%Morecambe

Statistics

MorecambeShrewsbury
Overview
42%Possession58%
7Total Shots17
3Corners3
12Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots17
2On Target1
2Off Target7
3Blocked9
3Inside Box8
4Outside Box9
Passing
42%Possession58%
260Total Passes350
158Accurate Passes232
61%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

League One: Morecambe 0–0 Shrewsbury

Morecambe and Shrewsbury drew 0-0 in League One on July 30, 2022.

Shrewsbury controlled possession (58%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Mazuma Stadium in Morecambe, Lancashire.