Shrewsbury 2–1 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mansfield Town

G. Lloyd 63'

J. Marquis 54'

W. Evans 5'

2/1/2025

League One · Round 30The Croud Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Shrewsbury36%

×Draw27%

Mansfield Town36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

Shrewsbury

1.25

Mansfield Town

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 46 away

1.14

creates per match

1.17

1.32

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Mansfield Town

1.17

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Mansfield Town

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

64%

Shrewsbury or Mansfield Town

73%

Draw or Mansfield Town

64%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

16%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

71%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

36%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

13%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

71%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

36%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

50%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Mansfield Town defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mansfield Town attack 1.17 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

36%

level

27%

Mansfield Town scores more

36%

Shrewsbury at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Feeney

Shrewsbury · D

8.5

Match Events

5'

W. Evans↳ G. Maris

34'

Toto Nsiala

37'

Aaron Pierre

54'

J. Marquis↳ J. Feeney

57'

S. Quinn← G. Maris

57'

A. Lewis← K. Baccus

59'

Baily Cargill

63'

G. Lloyd↳ A. Gilliead

75'

F. Ojo← D. Gape

75'

A. Kilgour← B. Cargill

81'

H. Biggins← A. Gilliead

84'

B. Waine← H. Boateng

84'

C. MacDonald← S. McLaughlin

90+3'

G. Nurse← J. Marquis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyMansfield

Overview

38%Possession62%

8Total Shots21

7Corners7

16Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots21

5On Target6

2Off Target5

1Blocked10

6Inside Box13

2Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

219Total Passes360

111Accurate Passes273

51%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0