Mansfield Town 2–1 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Mansfield Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shrewsbury

A. Lewis 86'

L. Gregory 49' (pen)

L. Castledine 2'

9/21/2024

League One · Round 7One Call Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mansfield Town45%

×Draw26%

Shrewsbury29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mansfield TownExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.09

Mansfield Town

1.44

Shrewsbury

1.09

Mansfield Town creates 32% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 152 away

1.48

creates per match

0.86

1.33

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Mansfield Town

1.48

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Mansfield Town

1.33

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mansfield Town ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mansfield Town or draw

71%

Mansfield Town or Shrewsbury

74%

Draw or Shrewsbury

55%

Winning margin

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

22%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

76%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

42%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

18%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

66%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

30%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

61%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mansfield Town at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mansfield Town attack 1.48 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Mansfield Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mansfield Town scores more

45%

level

26%

Shrewsbury scores more

29%

Mansfield Town at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

L. Gregory

Mansfield Town · F

8.2

Match Events

2'

37'

40'

42'

49'

L. GregoryPenalty

53'

Hiram Boateng

62'

J. Bowery← S. Quinn

62'

A. Lewis← H. Boateng

62'

T. Perry← L. Castledine

70'

Malvind Benning

74'

B. Waine← S. McLaughlin

80'

T. Bloxham← C. Sagoe Jr

81'

A. Pierre← A. Nsiala

86'

A. Lewis↳ K. Baccus

90+5'

G. Maris← K. Baccus

90+5'

T. Nichols← L. Gregory

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MansfieldShrewsbury

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots12

3Corners4

8Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots12

5On Target5

6Off Target2

3Blocked5

11Inside Box5

3Outside Box7

Passing

55%Possession45%

472Total Passes381

352Accurate Passes291

75%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls10

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1