Shrewsbury 0–3 Ipswich: Result & Stats | League One

Shrewsbury

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Ipswich

K. Jackson 90+2'

C. Chaplin 52'

T. John-Jules 22'

8/20/2022

League One · Round 5Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Shrewsbury31%

×Draw28%

Ipswich41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchIpswich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.29

Shrewsbury

1.07

Ipswich

1.29

Ipswich creates 21% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 84 away

1.14

creates per match

1.27

1.32

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Ipswich

1.27

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Ipswich

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Ipswich+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Ipswich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

59%

Shrewsbury or Ipswich

72%

Draw or Ipswich

69%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

12%

Ipswich wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

66%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

29%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

9%

Ipswich 1+ goals

72%

Ipswich 2+ goals

37%

Ipswich 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

43%

Ipswich (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Ipswich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Ipswich defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Ipswich attack 1.27 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

31%

level

28%

Ipswich scores more

41%

Ipswich at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Chaplin

Ipswich · F

8.0

Match Events

16'

22'

51'

52'

72'

C. Caton← D. Udoh

72'

R. Bowman← R. Pyke

73'

T. Bloxham← J. Da Costa

74'

K. Jackson← K. Vincent-Young

74'

F. Ladapo← T. John-Jules

80'

K. Edwards← M. Harness

80'

S. Aluko← C. Chaplin

90+2'

K. Jackson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyIpswich

Overview

33%Possession67%

4Total Shots13

2Corners8

9Fouls11

Shots

4Total Shots13

1On Target6

2Off Target4

1Blocked3

3Inside Box10

1Outside Box3

Passing

33%Possession67%

278Total Passes560

169Accurate Passes460

61%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3