Ipswich 2–0 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats | League One

Ipswich

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shrewsbury

M. Luongo 51'

G. Hirst 15'

3/18/2023

League One · Round 37Portman Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Ipswich54%

×Draw26%

Shrewsbury20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IpswichExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.84

Ipswich

1.54

Shrewsbury

0.84

Ipswich creates 83% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 152 away

1.70

creates per match

0.86

0.83

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Ipswich

1.70

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Ipswich

0.83

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ipswich or draw

80%

Ipswich or Shrewsbury

74%

Draw or Shrewsbury

46%

Winning margin

Ipswich wins by 2+

28%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ipswich 1+ goals

79%

Ipswich 2+ goals

45%

Ipswich 3+ goals

20%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

57%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

21%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ipswich (draw refunded)

72%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.83 · 86 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich attack 1.70 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.54

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Ipswich defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ipswich scores more

54%

level

26%

Shrewsbury scores more

20%

Ipswich at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ipswich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

M. Luongo

Ipswich · M

8.0

Match Events

15'

21'

43'

51'

56'

60'

T. Bloxham← R. Street

61'

C. Saydee← R. Pyke

68'

Nathan Broadhead

74'

F. Ladapo← G. Hirst

74'

M. Harness← N. Broadhead

74'

R. Bowman← E. Bennett

83'

Christian Saydee

86'

K. Jackson← W. Burns

89'

Taylor Moore

90+3'

K. Vincent-Young← M. Luongo

90+4'

D. Ball← C. Chaplin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IpswichShrewsbury

Overview

65%Possession35%

22Total Shots6

5Corners4

11Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots6

4On Target3

8Off Target2

10Blocked1

14Inside Box4

8Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

579Total Passes317

490Accurate Passes215

85%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls12

1Yellow Cards5

3Offsides0