Shrewsbury 1–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

M. Ingram 53' (OG)

G. Docherty 62'

3/20/2021

League One · Round 37Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Shrewsbury24%

×Draw24%

Hull City52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.71

Shrewsbury

1.09

Hull City

1.71

Hull City creates 57% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 23 away

1.14

creates per match

2.09

1.32

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Hull City

2.09

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Hull City

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

48%

Shrewsbury or Hull City

76%

Draw or Hull City

76%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

9%

Hull City wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

66%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

30%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

10%

Hull City 1+ goals

82%

Hull City 2+ goals

51%

Hull City 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

32%

Hull City (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Hull City away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Hull City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Hull City attack 2.09 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

24%

level

24%

Hull City scores more

52%

Hull City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

A. Jones

Hull City · M

7.5

Match Events

30'

Brad Walker

32'

D. Davis← B. Walker

46'

J. Magennis← G. Whyte

53'

M. IngramOwn goal

55'

62'

68'

70'

73'

C. Main← D. Udoh

75'

D. Crowley← K. Lewis-Potter

77'

Josh Vela

80'

D. Edwards← O. Norburn

80'

H. Chapman← S. Whalley

87'

Nathaniel Ogbeta

90'

T. Eaves← M. Wilks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyHull

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots10

3Corners2

23Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots10

3On Target1

2Off Target4

2Blocked5

4Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

321Total Passes373

234Accurate Passes276

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls16

5Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0