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Hull City vs Shrewsbury — League One 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
C. Daniels 27'
12/12/2020League OneLeague One · Round 17KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City53%
×Draw28%
Shrewsbury20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.39
Shrewsbury
0.73

Hull City creates 90% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 152 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.39
Shrewsbury
0.86

allows per match

Hull City
0.61
Shrewsbury
1.39

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
80%
Hull City or Shrewsbury
72%
Draw or Shrewsbury
47%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
26%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
75%
Hull City 2+ goals
40%
Hull City 3+ goals
16%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
52%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
17%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
73%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.39 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Hull City defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hull City scores more
53%
level
28%
Shrewsbury scores more
20%

Hull City at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
C. ElderHull CityHull City · D
7.9

Match Events

26'
Charlie Daniels
27'
C. Daniels
41'
Aaron Pierre
49'
Ethan Ebanks-Landell
62'
K. Lewis-Potter← R. Smallwood
62'
T. Eaves← H. Adelakun
70'
M. Pugh← S. Whalley
79'
L. Coyle← J. Emmanuel
81'
D. Edwards← S. Goss
90'
S. Tracey← D. Udoh

Possession

63%Hull

Shots

8Hull

Pass accuracy

56%Hull

Statistics

HullShrewsbury
Overview
63%Possession37%
8Total Shots6
6Corners3
14Fouls16
Shots
8Total Shots6
1On Target3
5Off Target3
2Blocked0
6Inside Box4
2Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
526Total Passes310
414Accurate Passes195
79%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls16
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Hull City vs Shrewsbury

Shrewsbury beat Hull City 1-0 in League One on December 12, 2020.

Goals: C. Daniels (27').

Hull City controlled possession (63%) and registered 8 shots to 6.

The match was played at KCOM Stadium in Hull.